Quad Cities Chamber Blog | Quad Cities Chamber

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

May 8, 2024

The labor market is showing signs of slowing down both nationally and locally as a result of higher interest rates. While higher rates were necessary to fight inflation, the side effect of an economic slowdown has been anticipated for well over a year. This week we look at the specifics of the recent labor market numbers. How much is the labor market slowing down? The question on everyone's mind is whether this slowdown will result in the long-awaited "soft landing" or the hard landing of a recession. What incoming data will help answer that question?

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

April 30, 2024

This week, we look at the first quarter GDP data that was released last Thursday. Also, in recognition of Small Business Week, we turn our attention to the importance of small business in the economy. How much do small businesses contribute to GDP, and how important are small businesses to the labor market? It may be more than you think!

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

April 23, 2024

Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials have helped move market sentiment away from expecting a summer rate cut. Even though overall economic growth is strong, the lingering inflation creates certain risks that add uncertainty to the economic forecast. This week we discuss some of these risks.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

April 16, 2024

Inflation was a little higher than expected last month, sending bond yields higher and diminishing hopes of an interest rate cut in the near future. This week, we discuss the key contributors to inflation and how the current projections for GDP growth may affect the possible timing of the rate cuts.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

April 9, 2024

The national labor market continued its unabated expansion in March, and the local labor market bounced back in February from a small stumble in January. What does all of this mean for the path of interest rates this year? Are we still looking for rate cuts to begin in the summer? This week, we examine the labor market data, considering how expectations have shifted and what upcoming data has the potential to move the markets even more.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

April 2, 2024

Housing values in the Quad Cities area continued to increase at a moderate rate in 2023 consistent with the average appreciation over the last few years. However, the housing in the Quad Cities remains quite affordable compared to other parts of the country. While the national headlines say that housing has become significantly less affordable since the start of the pandemic, the story is much different locally. This week, we look at some key indicators in the housing market that showcase how the Quad Cities differs from other parts of the country.

Conflicting readings on inflation making Fed's decision to cut interest rates more difficult

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

March 27, 2024

Conflicting readings on inflation are making the Federal Reserve’s decision on when to cut interest rates more difficult. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% over the last twelve months. What effect will this have on the Federal Reserve's plan to lower interest rates this year? This week, we examine the prospects for inflation and interest rate cuts in relation to the latest data.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

March 19, 2024

Job growth remains strong nationally, but the unemployment rate rose slightly in February. Locally, employment is starting to decline, although the unemployment rate is still comparable to pre-COVID levels for this time of year. This week we outline some of the concerns about the labor market and how the situation is complicated by the national inflation picture.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

March 12, 2024

The U.S. trade deficit rose in January following a significant decrease in the deficit for the 2023 calendar year. Local trade statistics for 2022 are now available, and the Quad Cities moved up the rankings from 52nd to 47th largest exporter among U.S. metropolitan areas. In the category of manufacturing of machinery, the Quad Cities ranked in the top-10 metro areas. This week, we look at the Quad Cities top exporting industries and what to expect in 2024.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

March 5, 2024

This week we depart from the usual news headline-oriented topics to take a deeper dive into some background data on the Quad Cities region. Our economic and demographic data dashboard contains key indicators to help you get to know the region.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

February 27, 2024

Productivity was up in the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of 2023 both for the manufacturing sector as well as the rest of the economy. The increase in productivity comes even as manufacturing output declined in the quarter. What is the reason for this, and what implication does it have for the fight against inflation? We answer these questions this week with an eye toward what to expect in the months ahead.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

February 20, 2024

Economic news has been better than expected, and that has consequences for bond yields. Why has the 10-year Treasury note been on a roller coaster ride lately, and what does it mean for consumers and small businesses? This week, we continue our focus on financial markets and look at how the bond market responds to changing expectations.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

February 13, 2024

On Friday, the S&P 500 stock index reached 5000 for the first time in its history. What does it mean for Main Street when Wall Street is hitting record highs? This week we put the stock market into perspective by explaining some of the reasons for the recent gains and how these events impact consumer and business confidence and spending.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

February 6, 2024

Strong job growth continues at both the national and local levels. The U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January--much more than expected. Meanwhile, the Quad Cities economy added 1,000 jobs over the course of 2023. However, the sectors that gained the most jobs nationally were not the same as those that gained the most locally. This week we examine both national and local employment and consider the implications.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

January 30, 2024

Once again, economic data came in better than expected. U.S. real gross domestic product rose 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, well above expectations. While consumer spending was high, inventory growth decreased reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing in the last part of the year. How will this news affect interest rates in 2024? This week we examine the market's reaction to the news.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

January 23, 2024

Once again economic data came in better than expected with U.S. industrial production up 0.1 percent in December. However, performance was mixed across various industries in 2023. This week, we look at the numbers from 2023 and consider how they moved market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024. Will rates remain "higher for longer?"

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

January 16, 2024

Inflation was higher than expected in December, but further interest rate increases may not be the answer. This week we look at why housing values may paradoxically move higher in response to high interest rates. Apart from the increase in shelter prices, most other consumer prices continue to moderate, and producer prices fell for the third straight month in December.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

January 9, 2024

Job growth continues to surprise to the upside with 216,000 jobs added nationwide in December. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.7%. While job openings were down in most of the country, they were up in the Midwest. This week we examine the national and local job numbers to see which sectors are cooling down and which ones are heating up.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

January 2, 2024

The big economic story of 2023 was what didn't happen. The much-expected recession never arrived. While it appears that a recession may have been avoided, at least for now, the increase in interest rates and the value of the dollar provided some headwinds for the local economy in 2023. This week, we look back at 2023 and look ahead at how expected interest rate cuts in 2024 could provide some relief.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

December 19, 2023

County level real GDP growth data for 2022 was recently released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A revision to previously released data was also included. With the revisions, we learned that the COVID-19 recession was not as severe for the Quad Cities area as we initially thought. As a result, the rebound the following year was also less than originally thought. This week we take a look at the numbers for each of the counties in the Chamber's service area.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

December 13, 2023

Job growth in the U.S. remains strong, but the trend is decreasing. Job openings nationwide decreased in October by more than expected. However many analysts still believe that a recession can be avoided. This week we look at some of the strengths and weaknesses in the U.S. labor market data and the implications for 2024.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

December 5, 2023

Inflation showed further signs of cooling in October as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge was unchanged. Meanwhile, real GDP was revised upward from 4.9% to 5.2% for the third quarter. How did Wall Street react? This week we examine how the news could affect prospects for interest rates in the new year.

Return to lower inflation and more normal financial market conditions predicted for 2024

December 1, 2023

Kevin Depew, RSM Deputy Chief Economist, was the keynote speaker at the Quad Cities Chamber’s Economic Forecast and provided an in-depth analysis of the national and regional economy to help QC businesses prepare for the coming year.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

November 28, 2023

As we move into the winter heating season, the impact of energy prices on consumers' wallets is on everyone's mind. Energy prices can have a significant effect on the overall economy because production of any kind requires energy. This week, we take you inside the Energy Information Administration's forecasts for energy prices for this winter and beyond.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

November 21, 2023

The consumer price index was unchanged in October, and other measures of inflation showed declines. This news sent equity markets higher as many believe that the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates. While it may be premature to declare victory over inflation at this time, this is certainly the best news on that front that we have received in many months. Policy error is still a possibility as falling inflation sends real interest rates higher, risking further contraction.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

November 14, 2023

Payroll jobs increased in the Quad Cities metro area during the month of September, but so did the unemployment rate. While this seems strange, there is a straightforward explanation. This week we examine how this can happen and what indicators to look for in the coming months to determine whether this is a simply an adjustment to a sustainable equilibrium or something more.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

November 7, 2023

Last Friday's report on the U.S. labor market was characterized by many analysts as a "Goldilocks" report--not too hot, not too cold, but just right. Payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, well below the recent average. We discuss the implications for manufacturing and the prospects for a "soft landing" this week.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

October 31, 2023

U.S. real gross domestic product increased at a robust 4.9 percent rate in the third quarter. Consumer spending and increases in inventories contributed the most to growth. This week we explain what this means for the path of interest rates going forward and how the Federal Reserve will respond to this news.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

October 24, 2023

How important is manufacturing to the region's GDP? For four of the six counties in the Chamber's service area, manufacturing's share of GDP is at or above the national average. Nearly one out of every five dollars of GDP in the region can be attributed to manufacturing. As manufacturing month continues, we highlight manufacturing's share of GDP in each of our six counties.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

October 16, 2023

In recognition of manufacturing month, we will feature data on manufacturing this week and next. As of BLS data from May 2022, there were 15,540 people working in production occupations in the Quad Cities metro area, representing nearly 9% of the jobs in the region. When you consider the additional occupations that support the companies in this space, the number of jobs dependent on manufacturing is even larger. This week, we’re breaking down the QC’s top manufacturing occupations and their median wages.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

October 10, 2023

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 336,000 jobs in September—well above the expectations of most analysts. Conventional wisdom says that a blockbuster labor report like this would lead to higher interest rates. However, the conventional wisdom might be wrong this time. This week, we go behind the headline and explain the reason for this and what it means for manufacturing.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

October 2, 2023

What does the value of the dollar have to do with economic activity in the Quad Cities? Because the local economy is more reliant on export manufacturing than the average metropolitan area in the U.S., the Quad Cities regional GDP fluctuates with the value of the dollar. This week, we take a look at the numbers behind this phenomenon.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

September 26, 2023

The U.S. economy continues to experience robust growth, which could cause interest rates to remain higher for longer. This week, we take a look at why the financial markets reacted so negatively to last week's Federal Reserve meeting and whether recent developments have impacted the outlook for the rest of the year and beyond.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

September 20, 2023

If you feel like the price of gasoline has been rising lately, it is not your imagination. After spending most of the past nine months in a fairly tight range, U.S. retail gasoline prices broke out of that range in August, rising to $3.954 per gallon. What does this sudden rise in the price of gas portend for the fight against inflation and economic prospects for the rest of this year and next year?

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

September 13, 2023

How well did some of the Quad Cities' key industries recover from the 2020 COVID-19 recession? According to data recently released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Quad Cities experienced a robust recovery during 2021, especially in some of our largest industries. In this week's report, we look at the numbers for construction, manufacturing, and logistics.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

September 5, 2023

Financial markets were anticipating several important pieces of economic data leading up to the Labor Day weekend. There was more evidence that labor demand is decreasing, helping to bring labor markets back into equilibrium. While this should diminish inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve's key inflation indicators remain uncomfortably high. Is there still hope for a "soft landing?"

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

August 29, 2023

Wage growth in the Quad Cities area was slightly below the national average in 2022 in most occupations. However, for certain occupations in high demand industries wage growth was higher than the national average, reflecting the tightening labor market in these key industries. While hiring seems to be slowing relative to the early part of the post-COVID recovery, the strength of wage growth suggests that the demand for labor remains high. In this week's installment, we look at the numbers for these key industries.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

August 22, 2023

The Quad Cities labor market is showing signs of cooling. Unemployment rose slightly in June, and both employment and labor force remain below pre-COVID-19 levels. How much more recovery in labor force should be expected as the economy finds a "new normal?" That is a tricky question as the "gig economy" has made employment statistics harder to interpret. This week, we take a look at those numbers and discuss the "missing" labor force.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

August 15, 2023

The U.S. trade deficit decreased in June as imports fell while exports held steady. The strong U.S. dollar has been good for consumers, but not for export manufacturers. The Fed's campaign of interest rate hikes and the strength of the U.S. economy relative to the world have kept the dollar strong. A pause in interest rate increases would be welcome news for exporters in the region. What will it take to return the dollar to it's former levels?

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

August 8, 2023

The U.S. labor market may be starting to show signs of slowing down in response to rising interest rates. Manufacturing, transportation, warehousing, and temporary help were among the sectors with job losses in July. The threat of recession still remains even as businesses report solid earnings. What effect does this have on the Fed's next move on interest rates?

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

August 1, 2023

The US economy continues to grow at a healthy rate with a 2.4% increase in real GDP in the second quarter, up from 2.0% in the first quarter. As expected, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates another 1/4 of a percent. Inflation appears to be cooling without much of a slowdown in economic activity. How long can this continue? Wall Street earnings and incoming economic data will hold clues.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

July 25, 2023

There was encouraging news on inflation in June as the Consumer Price Index rose by only 0.2%, which is lower than the average of the last few months. Core inflation and expectations of future inflation also moderated. The question still remains as to how this will impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions for the rest of the year.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

July 21, 2023

The Quad Cities job market continues to be strong with 2500 jobs added during the month of May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Leisure and hospitality, government, and professional and business services saw the most gains. Manufacturing jobs are close to a fifteen-year high. However, labor force participation remains below pre-COVID levels.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

July 4, 2023

The employment numbers for the month of May in the Quad Cities were "good," but not quite "great." Manufacturing as well as leisure and hospitality have surpassed pre-pandemic employment, but the same cannot be said of all sectors. Labor force participation, especially in services other than leisure and hospitality has lagged even as job growth in the region continues to be robust.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

June 20, 2023

The Federal Reserve held their interest rate target constant last week on the heels of good news on the inflation front. Core inflation remains stubbornly high, which likely means more rate increases later in the year. Perhaps the best part of the news is that inflation expectations continue to fall.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

June 12, 2023

Data on manufacturing was mixed in the month of April, with manufacturers' new orders up 0.4%. This was a smaller increase than in March, and was lower than analysts expectations. With industrial production varying across different sectors in the last few months, this complicates the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

June 5, 2023

The U.S. economy added another 339,000 jobs in May, but the report was not all good news. Manufacturing jobs were flat, and unemployment rose significantly. This complicates matters for the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates. While the robust labor market suggests another rate increase may be in order, there is mounting evidence that the economy could slow down enough in the second half of 2023 to warrant a pause in rate hikes.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

May 31, 2023

Last week, we examined the recent history of economic growth in the Quad Cities area. This week, we take a historical perspective on the local labor market. By looking at employment and labor force numbers, we can see how the Quad Cities labor market has been shaped by demographic factors as well as national events such as recessions and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

May 22, 2023

This week, we look at the recent history of economic growth in the Quad Cities area. In the 20 years since 2001, real GDP growth in the Quad Cities Chamber service area has averaged about 0.8% per year, growing from about $21.3 billion to $24.9 billion (in 2012 dollars) over that period of time.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

May 15, 2023

The CPI for all urban consumers increased, but at a lower rate than expected, giving markets some hope that the Federal Reserve could pause interest rate increases. As of Monday, May 15, the probability of a pause at the June FOMC meeting sits at 75.8%.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

May 8, 2023

The U.S. labor market continues to defy expectations with 253,000 jobs added in April and unemployment moving slightly lower to 3.4%. However, job openings were down again in March, which suggests a slowdown in job growth in the second half of the year. What are the implications for the economy?

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

May 1, 2023

Gross domestic product increased 1.1% in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2023 amid signs of a slowing economy. However, a significant drawdown of inventories suggests that firms have begun to prepare for lower demand. The Federal Reserve meets this week for another interest rate decision. How soon before they pause the rate increases?

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

April 17, 2023

In this second of an ongoing series on the structure of the Quad Cities economy, we highlight the occupational groups with the highest relative concentrations compared to the national average. Manufacturing is at the top of the list with certain types of manufacturing several times more concentrated here than on average.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

April 10, 2023

Job growth continued nationwide last month amid signs of a slowing economy. However, weaker data on job openings suggest that job creation may slow in the months ahead. Is it enough to convince the Federal Reserve to pause the interest rate increases soon?

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

March 31, 2023

The key takeaway is that each one of the six counties in our service area saw growth in real GDP in 2021.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

March 24, 2023

Manufacturing employment had a good year in the Quad Cities, and the local unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 4.5% from January 2022 to January 2023. However, continued interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve could pose issues for both the national and local economy in the year ahead.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

March 17, 2023

On March 10th, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a key player in the world of start-up financing, failed due to a run on its deposits. The resulting fallout in the financial markets this week has cast uncertainty on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the likelihood of recession.

Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

March 10, 2023

The U.S. trade deficit increased by about $1 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis (about 1.6%) in January, moving from $67.2 billion to $68.3 billion. Exports jumped by 3.4% from $249.0 billion to $257.5 billion, which was the largest monthly increase since April.

Weekly Economic Trends & Indicators

March 3, 2023

Wage growth slowed for the third consecutive month in January, according to the BLS. Average earnings across all private (non-government) occupations were $33.03 per hour, up from $32.93 in December.

Weekly Economic Trends & Indicators

February 24, 2023

A report this week by the real estate firm Redfin stated that the total value of U.S. homes fell by $2.3 trillion from June to December 2022 (decline of 4.9%).

Weekly Economic Trends & Indicators

February 17, 2023

Inflation continues to be a stubborn problem for the U.S. economy. This week saw two important data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Weekly Economic Trends & Indicators

February 10, 2023

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), nonfarm business sector productivity in the U.S. increased 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Weekly Economic Trends & Indicators

February 8, 2023

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate last week and in January the unemployment rate decreased to 3.4%, the lowest unemployment rate since 1969.